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10 Cities Where Home Prices Are Predicted to Decline the Most

Man peeking out window at neighbor's house
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People looking to buy a home may be frustrated by two recent trends, leaving them unsure of the best time to pull the trigger.

Just as the price of homes in many areas has started to cool off, mortgage rates have spiked — the rate on a 30-year mortgage has doubled since the beginning of the year, as we recently reported. So do you buy now or wait to see if interest rates come down before prices go back up? Right about now, a crystal ball would help.

While nobody can predict the future with perfect accuracy, a new analysis of 414 housing markets that Moody’s Analytics conducted for Fortune highlights the biggest price declines expected between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2024.

Here’s a look at the cities where home prices are expected to decline the most over the next two years.

10. Palm Bay, Florida

Palm Bay, Florida
Thomas Kelley / Shutterstock.com

Forecasted home price change between late 2022 and late 2024: 7.6% decrease

Palm Bay is the first of several Sunshine State cities poised to become more appealing to homebuyers. That’s great news since it’s already among “11 of the Cheapest Places to Live in Florida,” with a cost of living 6.3% below the national average, according to data from Salary.com.

9. Missoula, Montana

Missoula, Montana
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Forecasted home price change between late 2022 and late 2024: 7.7% decrease

Any reversal of the recent trend is good news for homebuyers in this western Montana town. Over the past year, home prices in Missoula have spiked more than 27%, with the typical home value now sitting at about $590,000.

8. Reno, Nevada

Reno, Nevada
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Forecasted home price change between late 2022 and late 2024: 8.2% decrease

If you want to roll the dice on improving home prices in Nevada, there are worse places to look than Reno. The city was also among “The 10 Best U.S. Cities for First-Time Homebuyers in 2021.”

7. Fort Lauderdale, Florida

Florida
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Forecasted home price change between late 2022 and late 2024: 8.6% decrease

Sunny days are here again for Fort Lauderdale homebuyers, and it’s not the worst place to settle down. It’s the eighth-best place to retire in Florida, we recently reported.

6. Lake Havasu City, Arizona

Lake Havasu City, Arizona
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Forecasted home price change between late 2022 and late 2024: 9% decrease

Homebuyers eyeing Lake Havasu City were due for a break. It currently stands among “The 10 Most Overpriced Housing Markets in the U.S.

5. Ocala, Florida

Sunrise in Ocala, Florida
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Forecasted home price change between late 2022 and late 2024: 9.3% decrease

Typical home values in Ocala have risen sharply over the past year: 38% according to Zillow. But compared with many places, that’s still not too bad — the typical home value is around $263,000 and apparently likely to decline in the coming years.

3. Cape Coral, Florida (tie)

Cape Coral, Florida
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Forecasted home price change between late 2022 and late 2024: 9.4% decrease

Like Lake Havasu City, Cape Coral is one of the most overpriced housing markets in the country. It’s little surprise the area might see a course correction in the near future.

3. Spokane, Washington (tie)

Houses in Spokane, Washington
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Forecasted home price change between late 2022 and late 2024: 9.4% decrease

In June, we reported Spokane homebuyers were paying a premium of more than 56% above average prices. A decline approaching 10% over the next two years is just a dent in those inflated prices, but it certainly doesn’t hurt for the folks who have their hearts set on Eastern Washington.

2. Punta Gorda, Florida

Punta Gorda, Florida
Feng Cheng / Shutterstock.com

Forecasted home price change between late 2022 and late 2024: 11.4% decrease

Punta Gorda has become a battleground for prospective homebuyers, with fierce bidding wars and many people walking away disappointed. Perhaps some of those folks will get a better shot over the next two years as prices in this Florida city move in the other direction.

1. The Villages, Florida

The Villages, Florida
Peter Titmuss / Shutterstock.com

Forecasted home price change between late 2022 and late 2024: 12.8% decrease

This central Florida city is a popular retirement community, and declining prices aren’t likely to change that. We noted last year that more than a quarter of mortgages here are for a buyer’s second home.

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